Leave it to the most cursed franchise in pro football history to pay a king’s ransom for a quarterback, once considered on the edge of NFL royalty, who now appears to be turning into an expensive bust as many skeptics foretold.
The Cleveland Browns agreeing in 2022 to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract with Deshaun Watson — trading away six draft picks (three first-rounders) to acquire the massage-addicted quarterback from the Houston Texans — was such a Browns thing to do.
Only an incredibly desperate franchise, known for one misstep after another, would force a risky, unnecessary merger with a talented quarterback weighed down by massive legal issues.
So far, 13 games into his Cleveland tenure, Watson is threatening to become the Biggest Mistake by the Lake.
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Many critics, particularly women offended by the Browns acquiring a quarterback who had been saddled with 24 lawsuits against him by female massage therapists for sexual harassment and sexual assault, were appalled at the Watson signing. And rightfully so.
In hindsight, viewing it from strictly a football production lens, it looks even worse.
Watson is nowhere near the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback he was in Houston (2017-20). Instead, he has regressed to the point where the biggest story in Cleveland is speculation about how the Browns can go about getting rid of him without financially suffocating the franchise.
The Browns mortgaged their future for Watson, who is expected to start Sunday’s matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. That move might well go down as the most extraordinary public relations blunder in league history.
Considering the monumental gaffes attached to the NFL in recent years — the Michael Vick dogfighting ring, Spygate, the Ray Rice domestic violence video, Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder being forced out due to a toxic workplace culture of discrimination and sexual harassment — that's saying a lot.
Watson’s steep decline
After Watson played to rave reviews for most of his time with the Texans, his career began cratering in 2021 when one massage therapist after another filed lawsuits that accused him of harassment and assault in varying degrees.
He denied wrongdoing while settling 23 of 24 claims of sexual misconduct. Watson sat out the 2021 season, was suspended for 11 games in 2022, and fined $5 million in a settlement between the NFL and its Players Association.
On Monday, another woman filed a civil lawsuit that is prompting an NFL investigation. One media report says this sexual misconduct allegation could result in Watson forfeiting some of his guaranteed money, if he’s suspended again due to a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.
The Browns knowingly took a huge gamble on Watson. It continues to backfire on them.
“That was a calculated risk with all the things surrounding Deshaun,” said NBC analyst and Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy in a phone interview with the Times-Union. “You got to do your homework. It’s a big risk to pay that much money and lock your franchise in with all the stuff going on [in his personal life].
“I’m sure at the time they thought it was worth it. So far, it hasn’t worked out.”
Though Watson is 8-5 as a starter in Cleveland, much of that can be attributed to a stout defense that allowed just 11.0 points in 11 games that he played full-time over the previous two seasons.
In Watson’s season-opening, 33-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, he completed just 24 of 45 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions for a 51.1 QB rating, fourth-lowest in the NFL in Week 1.
Whether it’s a new environment, the long layoff due to his suspension or season-ending shoulder surgery that cost him 11 games in 2023, the Browns are still waiting on a payoff for their over-the-top investment.
Searching for the old Watson
All the pertinent numbers bear out that Watson is not even close to the same quarterback in Cleveland that he was in Houston.
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During his 54 games with the Texans, whose defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in yards and points allowed for three of his four seasons, Watson completed 67.8 percent of his passes, had a touchdown-interception ratio of 104-36, averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and a QBR of 104.5.
He absorbed an NFL-high 62 sacks in 2018 and still had a 103.1 QBR. Two years later, Watson threw for a league-best 4,873 yards and 8.9 yards per attempt.
With the Browns, his completion rate is 59.1 percent. Watson's TD-INT rate is 15-11, the yards per attempt is 6.2 and QBR is 78.1.
By unloading Watson to a foolish buyer, Houston used all that draft capital to fortify its roster. They acquired starters like pass-rusher Will Anderson, guard Kenyon Green and receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
The Texans are viewed as a long-term AFC contender, while Cleveland faces uncertainty without Watson being his old self.
“Unless he comes back around, the Browns have put themselves in a tough position,” said Dungy. “They banked on getting the Houston Deshaun Watson. Cleveland can be good if he comes around, but so far, it doesn’t look good.”
The consequences of possibly getting rid of Watson won’t be cheap. Cleveland is staring at a salary-cap number of $72 million on him for each of the next two seasons. Cutting Watson after this year would be an abominable $200 million dead-money cap hit, per Over the Cap.
Jaguars prefer the new Watson
When he wore a Texans’ uniform, Watson was a Jaguars killer. He won his last six matchups with Jacksonville (2018-20), completing 119 of 183 passes for 1,373 yards, an 8-2 touchdown-interception ratio and 97.55 QBR.
Jaguars pass-rusher Josh Hines-Allen was lined up on the opposite side of Watson for four of those meetings. He prefers the Browns’ version of Watson with his inferior stats, not the problem QB he chased around in Houston.
“With the Texans, he was making things happen,” said Hines-Allen. “You definitely saw the capability in him last week [against Dallas], the way he missed sacks, people having him wrapped about and he’s [escaping], like the experience we had when he was in Houston. He still has that big-play ability.
“What’s happened to him happens all over the league at that position. Guys change teams, he doesn’t fit right within the system or within the culture of that team. He’s one of the guys it’s unfortunately happened to, but he has the capability of making every play that needs to be made.”
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Nobody knows that more than Jaguars linebacker Foye Oluokun how lethal the old Watson could be. He was a backup with the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 6,2019, playing exclusively on special-teams, when the former Clemson QB had the game of his life.
In a 53-32 Texans’ win over Atlanta at NRG Stadium, the third-year QB threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns and had a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
“Once he gets comfortable with the pass rush, the scheme, all that stuff, I think he’s still that capable, dangerous guy,” said Oluokun. “You see he still escapes the pocket like how he did back in the day. As soon as understands everything [in Cleveland], he’s still dangerous.”
Defensive lineman Arik Armstead, who never played against Watson during his time with the San Francisco 49ers, insists Watson still commands respect in league circles.
“He’s capable of doing amazing things on the football field,” said Armstead. “No one is sleeping on Deshaun Watson.”
Maybe not, but the Browns’ offense has yet to awaken the way owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam and GM Andrew Berry envisioned when they rolled out aBrink's truck — plus all that draft capital — to take Watson off Houston’s hands.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Browns get shafted. After all, this is the franchise that hasn’t won an NFL championship since 1964, got sabotaged in two gut-wrenching AFC Championship losses to the Denver Broncos by an Earnest Byner fumble and "The Drive" by John Elway.
Cleveland alsosaw its franchise pack up and move to Baltimore in 1996, leaving one of the NFL’s most loyal fan bases to wait another three years before landing an expansion team.The Browns went a whole decade (2008-17) finishing in last place nine times, compiling a record of 38-122 record (.237).
Bizarre things just seem to happen to the bad news Browns, including rampant failure at quarterback. Deshaun Watson is starting to look like another sad chapter in a long historyof suffering.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
