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Welcome to Milwaukee
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
July 15, 2024
The 2024 Republican Party platform is far from traditional
Conservative lawmakers have learned that things don’t go well if they break with their party.
July 12, 2024
Is Trump trying to soften the Republican Party’s least popular positions?
The GOP released its proposed party platform this week.
July 12, 2024
Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers leave the door open for Biden to withdraw
More Democrats are saying the president shouldn’t run, but he continues on.
July 12, 2024
Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate
Polls show even many Democrats think he's too old for a second term.
July 12, 2024
4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes
Biden's lost some ground, but it's hard to say much more.
July 11, 2024
What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common
They're more moderate, while his backers are progressive and racially diverse.
July 10, 2024
Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate
Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.
July 9, 2024
Can Biden recover from the debate?
Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
July 9, 2024
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
July 9, 2024
Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent
538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
July 9, 2024
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions.
July 8, 2024
Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?
What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.
July 4, 2024
Will President Biden stay in the race?
After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.
July 4, 2024
Democrats express concern over Biden’s future
With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.
July 4, 2024
Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.
July 4, 2024
The Brexit movement's impact on the present day
Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.
July 4, 2024
Making sense of a historic British election
The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.
July 4, 2024
Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.
July 3, 2024
Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?
Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.
July 2, 2024
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 2, 2024
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 2, 2024
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.
July 2, 2024
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Less than the current front-runners might hope.
July 1, 2024
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 28, 2024
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28, 2024
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28, 2024
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28, 2024
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
June 28, 2024
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 27, 2024
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26, 2024
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
June 26, 2024
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 25, 2024
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25, 2024
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
June 24, 2024
Do global election trends provide insight into the USelection?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the worldcould help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
June 20, 2024
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Expertstalk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20, 2024
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20, 2024
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13, 2024
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13, 2024
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13, 2024
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11, 2024
As of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president. We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.
UPDATED Jul. 21, 2024, at 12:23 PM
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 51 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Forecast suspended
Trump
Biden
No winner
+
simulations
Biden wins
Trump wins
Electoral vote margin
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16-18 | 2.9 | Biden 47% 52% Trump | Trump +5 | |
| July 17 | No rating | Biden 45% 51% Trump | Trump +6 | |
| July 15-17 | Democratic-funded | No rating | Biden 43% 47% Trump | Trump +4 |
| July 15-17 | 2.3 | Biden 46% 51% Trump | Trump +5 | |
| July 15-17 | 1.8 | Biden 42% 46% Trump | Trump +4 | |
| July 15-16 | Democrats for the Next Generation (super PAC) Democratic-funded | 2.9 | Biden 38% 44% Trump | Trump +6 |
| July 15-16 | 2.8 | Biden 39% 40% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| July 13-16 | 2.9 | Biden 41% 43% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| July 15 | 1.8 | Biden 42% 43% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| July 15 | 1.8 | Biden 45% 46% Trump | Trump +1 |
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
45%
51%
Trump +6
43%
47%
Trump +4
46%
51%
Trump +5
42%
46%
Trump +4
38%
44%
Trump +6
Trump +2
42%
43%
Trump +1
45%
46%
Trump +1
Latest updates
LAST UPDATED July 22
On Sunday, July 21, President Joe Biden announced he would no longer seek the Democratic nomination for president, relenting after weeks of pressure from top Democratic officials and donors to drop out of the race. Shortly after announcing he’d step away from running, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s new nominee.
To win the nomination, Harris will have to secure the majority of delegates at the Democratic National Convention, which begins August 19. But most of those were previously pledged to Biden. Under DNC rules, delegates “shall in all good conscience" reflect the views of those who elected them, so we should expect most of Biden’s supporters to flow to Harris quickly — perhaps announcing their new vote intention before the convention — lest another unforeseen event disrupt the 2024 election further.
If Harris does become the clear presumptive nominee for the Democrats, 538 will launch a new election forecasting and polling-average model for her campaign against Donald Trump. Keep this page bookmarked to stay up to date whenever that comes out.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Biden win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
Vote share
VPI ▲ ▼
Tipping point ▲ ▼
State ▲ ▼
Forecasted margin of victory ▲ ▼
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
Zoom out
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
✓
✓
What do the polls and fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows the different components of the forecast and what they say.
Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory
Polling average
The state of the polls today according to 538’s polling average only. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Adjusted polling average
The polling average adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
An adjusted version of our polling average that accounts for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
Full forecast
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate. Before Election Day, the final forecast in some states can be more Democratic or Republican than the fundamentals and polls because of patterns of overperformance in similar states.
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 22 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 13 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 26 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 37 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the national popular vote | 62 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 38 out of 100 |
| Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote | 29 out of 100 |
| Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote | 14 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 12 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 5 out of 100 |
| Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 13 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 5 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | 57 out of 100 |
| Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 49 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 81 out of 100 |
Credits
Forecast model
Quantitative editing
Content editing
Project management
Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart
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Electoral College probabilityLatest pollsLatest updatesForecast over timeState probabilitiesClosest racesPath to 270Electoral vs. popular votePolls vs. fundamentalsPossible scenarios
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